Read The Accidental Superpower The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder edition by Peter Zeihan Politics Social Sciences eBooks
Download As PDF : The Accidental Superpower The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder edition by Peter Zeihan Politics Social Sciences eBooks
In the bestselling tradition of The World Is Flat and The Next 100 Years, THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER will be a much discussed, contrarian, and eye-opening assessment of American power.
Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world's oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners.
We think of this system as normal-it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time.
In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that-alone among the developed nations-is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order.
For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime.
Read The Accidental Superpower The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder edition by Peter Zeihan Politics Social Sciences eBooks
"Zeihan’s geographic insights are compelling, and his demographic analyses illuminate an inexorable force that will shape the future world. Some readers may object to the dispassionate presentation of his perspective as “heartless†or “amoral,†but the work is not attempting to advocate what should happen, but rather what geography and demographics indicate will (likely) happen. Proponents of freer immigration to the United States will certainly be encouraged by the demographic advantage this will give America in the 21st century.
That said, the book fails to taken into account in any significant way the change in geography (particularly desertification) that will result from climate change in the coming century. The shift in areas of arable land and their accessibility will modify the favorable position of the United States. The degree of this change cannot be accurately predicted at present, but there will certainly be some change.
Another climate-change related “blind spot†is the opening of polar sea routes to trade. This will transform the trading mechanisms of countries with Arctic ports, particularly Russia and Canada, and this has not been addressed.
There is insufficient attention to what might be described as “wild card†events. In particular, the fragmentation of powers like Russia and China, both with significant nuclear arsenals, could lead to nuclear confrontation, with traumatic effects that would certainly disrupt or delay the processes that Zeihan lays out.
All in all, this is an interesting contribution to understanding forces that will shape the near future of our globe. And while it leaves out what I would consider important factors in determining the course of events, it clearly presents several that are well worth considering."
Product details
|
Tags : The Accidental Superpower The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder - edition by Peter Zeihan. Download it once and read it on your device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading The Accidental Superpower The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder.,ebook,Peter Zeihan,The Accidental Superpower The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder,Twelve,Comparative Politics,21st century,Forecasting,Forecasts,Future Studies,Geopolitics,International Relations - General,International relations,POLITICAL SCIENCE / Comparative Politics,POLITICAL SCIENCE / Government / Comparative,POLITICAL SCIENCE / Government / Comparative.,POLITICAL SCIENCE / Security (National International),Political Science,Political Science/American Government - General,Political Science/Geopolitics,Political Science/International Relations - General,Politics / Current Events,Politics/International Relations,Security (National International),Twenty-first century,Twenty-first century;Forecasts.,United States - Foreign relations - 21st century,United States;Foreign relations;21st century.,World politics,World politics - 21st century - Forecasting,World politics;21st century;Forecasting.,bisacsh
The Accidental Superpower The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder edition by Peter Zeihan Politics Social Sciences eBooks Reviews :
The Accidental Superpower The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder edition by Peter Zeihan Politics Social Sciences eBooks Reviews
- I read this book just after Reading World Order by Henry Kissinger. Kissinger's book covers the current challenges of the geopolitical landscape, outlining above all the historical and cultural context in which the US and other major powers find themselves. Well, this book offers a similar analysis of the current scene, but although not exclusively, it's main focus is on the geographical, military and some other aspects, mostly the physical resources which define the sources and limits of power for major countries. In the author's view, the US, with unequalled geographic and physical resources is the country which calls the shots in the modern world. The real game-changer is the recent discovery of shale oil in the US wich will give it energy Independence, and will reduce the need for protecting the world's major sea-lanes necessary for world trade to prosper. Up to now it has been in the interest of the US to promote and protect world trade, but that is no longer the case. This means that many countries with lesser resouces as the US ( e.g. Germany, China ) will face serious challenges in retaining their power without the backing of the US navy and enforcement of order. The author points out the countries most vulnerable under the expected new regime, and their alternatives. While I certainly found the book great reading and full of interesting facts and figures, I felt it a little too one-dimensional i.e. too reliant on geographical, economic, dempographic and physical resources to explain the potential evolution of modern geopolitics. This view is rather deterministic as if these factors would logically induce countries to act according to their existing natural strengths without other considerations. The historical and cultural aspects stressed by Kissinger, as well as the capacity for shifting alliances, treaties and use of "soft power" ( which the US also posseses abundantly ) . The book also gives little place to the role of modern technology in shaping the world. I am doubtful about the central tenet of Keizan's thesis that the US would withdraw significantly from policing the major sea-lanes. Even if self-sufficient in almost everything, the US needs to maintain a strong presence everywhere. Kissinger in his book stresses that if the US does not do this it could easily end up as a big island off Eurasia, with little influence in shaping events outside its sphere.and which sooner or later would have serious reverberations on the North-American continent. Having said this, the book is still very good it brings to light many basic aspects of geography and resources which we usually don't think about in the age of intercontinental ballistic missiles, hi-tech weapons and space exploration, but which are still hugely important in shaping the world. Also, the author manages to build up a very convincing picture of the potential unfolding of the world over the coming decades if countries act according to their geography, their demographic, physical and economic resources, above all, if the US removes its protection of free trade. These factors will bestow unusual power on some, especally the US, and reveal serious vulnerabilities in others, especially countries whose prowess we today consider almost unassailable.
- The author makes some bold calls based on geographic and ethnic considerations. Whether Russia will disintegrate or Turkey will become a regional power is anybody's guess. As we speak, Turkey faces a major economic crisis and seems to be leaning for help away from its traditional allies.
Will the Eurozone break up as he predicts? The Euro has been largely a peace project and the benefits have been enormous when we consider closer European integration during an unprecedented 70 years of peace in Europe.
The author lists the geographical, natural resources arguments that make the USA have a comparative advantage. However, does the USA desire to become an island simply because it can?
I give it to the author that he sticks his neck out and tries to rationalize his predictions. We do not know whether these will come to pass and so I give it a 3 based on the arguments rather the outcomes. Some predictions have been wrong already. - Zeihan’s geographic insights are compelling, and his demographic analyses illuminate an inexorable force that will shape the future world. Some readers may object to the dispassionate presentation of his perspective as “heartless†or “amoral,†but the work is not attempting to advocate what should happen, but rather what geography and demographics indicate will (likely) happen. Proponents of freer immigration to the United States will certainly be encouraged by the demographic advantage this will give America in the 21st century.
That said, the book fails to taken into account in any significant way the change in geography (particularly desertification) that will result from climate change in the coming century. The shift in areas of arable land and their accessibility will modify the favorable position of the United States. The degree of this change cannot be accurately predicted at present, but there will certainly be some change.
Another climate-change related “blind spot†is the opening of polar sea routes to trade. This will transform the trading mechanisms of countries with Arctic ports, particularly Russia and Canada, and this has not been addressed.
There is insufficient attention to what might be described as “wild card†events. In particular, the fragmentation of powers like Russia and China, both with significant nuclear arsenals, could lead to nuclear confrontation, with traumatic effects that would certainly disrupt or delay the processes that Zeihan lays out.
All in all, this is an interesting contribution to understanding forces that will shape the near future of our globe. And while it leaves out what I would consider important factors in determining the course of events, it clearly presents several that are well worth considering.
